How we estimate hvac replacement cost
Every estimate combines a national price for each part of the job with a local labor adjustment for your province. Here is exactly how that works and where the numbers come from.
The formula
For each line item we multiply a quantity (driven by your conditioned home area, system type, efficiency tier, and whether ductwork is replaced) by a national unit cost, then apply a quality-grade factor. A regional labor multiplier is applied to the labor portion only — materials are priced nationally. We show the itemized result as a ±22% range.
National unit costs
| Line item | National unit cost | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor condenser unit | $1,310.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Furnace / heating unit | $2,390.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Evaporator coil / air handler | $1,630.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Refrigerant lineset & connections | $760.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Ductless mini-split (outdoor + heads) | $1,960.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Ductwork replacement | $4.40 / sq ft | ref |
| Installation labor | $980.00 / sq ft | ref |
| Permit, disposal & startup | $870.00 / sq ft | ref |
Regional labor multipliers
Each province's labor multiplier is its median carpenter wage relative to the national median, from the Government of Canada Job Bank wage data (Carpenters, NOC 72310) — used as a disclosed proxy because the by-province HVAC mechanic series (NOC 72402) is too sparse to retrieve at build time, so carpenter wage stands in for HVAC mechanic wage. Multipliers are bounded to a sane range and applied to the labor share of each line item, so materials stay nationally priced while labor tracks local wages.
Data vintage & limitations
Compiled June 2026 from public cost aggregators and government wage data — these are derived estimates, not live contractor quotes. Local prices vary with project complexity, access, and material availability; always confirm with a licensed contractor before budgeting.